Premier League Analysis: The Match Defining Power Of The Own Goal
When you score an own goal at any level, it feels as though you are mainlining liquid mortification. When a player puts through his own net in the Premier League, that embarrassment is magnified times infinity.
However, along with being a nightmare scenario for the individual player, our research shows that committing football hara-karri has a huge impact on the team’s overall chances in a game.
This week, Premier League supporters have been treated to a couple of prime examples of the power that own goals can wield.
Chris Smalling’s calamitous 77th minute own-goal against Wolves wasn’t exactly out of character for a centre-half who is regularly more keystone than cornerstone, though his comical blunder did consign Manchester United to a second successive 2-1 defeat at Molineux.
Just two days earlier, Toby Alderweireld’s inexplicable late gaffe handed all 3 points to Liverpool at Anfield in Spurs crunch game against the Merseysiders on Sunday.
Often, own goals are viewed as misery compounding moments that solidify that horrible feeling that Lady Luck has nipped off down the shops for the day, but we’ve discovered that they have a genuinely potent momentum shifting capacity too.
Premier League Own Goals 2018/19
So far this season, a total of 28 own goals have been scored in Premier League matches, all of which were registered in separate fixtures.
Wolves (4), one of the beneficiaries of an own goal this week, have actually scored more of them at the other end than any other side in the division this term, with Man Utd, Tottenham Hotspur, Watford and Southampton running them close on 3 each.
13 of the Premier League’s clubs have scored at least 1 own goal this season, though Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Brighton, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Leicester City have yet to dabble in the art of self-destruction.
Wolves captain Conor Coady’s 3 own goals put him out on his own as the league’s most prolific performers of sporting snafu this season. Wanderers’ skipper is just 1 shy of Lewis Dunk (2017/18) and Martin Skrtel’s (2013/14) joint all-time Premier League record of 4 own goals scored in a single season.
Unsurprisingly, 24 of the 28 own goals were hit by Premier League defenders, though Spurs’ Fernando Llorente is the only striker to have scored at the wrong end this season. Incidentally, Llorente has scored the same number of goals and own goals in the Premier League this term (1 & 1).
The Effect Of Own Goals on Results
Ok, here is where things get a little more interesting….
In the 28 Premier League fixtures where an own goal was scored, the team that scored the OG went on to lose the game a massive 21 times. 2 og-laced contests finished level, while only 5 og-scoring teams out of 28 recovered to win.
The statistics suggest that own goals have the power to completely pull the rug out from under a team, burying their prospects with one mis-timed shank of a clearance.
When an own goal breaks the deadlock in a Premier League game, its momentum killing effects are even more apparent.
Own goals have been the first goal in a Premier League fixture 11 times in total so far this season, and on 9 (or 81.8%) of those occasions, the team that committed the early blooper went on to lose the game.
It seems that the psychological tide-shifting ability of own goals can have equally huge impact, in positive and negative terms, on a team’s self-belief and outlook for the rest of a particular game.
This season, remarkably few teams have shown the ability to recover from the confidence-shattering blow that an early own goal can have.
Tottenham clawed their way back from Fernando Lllorente’s own goal to win 2-1 late on at Fulham in January, while their North London rivals Arsenal turned it around at home to Leicester in October after Hector Bellerin’s 31st minute blunder.
Applying The Power of The Own Goal to The Betting Markets
Essentially, what the data and patterns show, is that a team scoring an own goal at any point during a Premier League fixture is extremely likely to lose the game.
When dabbling in the in-play markets, this should be a really valuable piece of information to be armed with.
Naturally, when a team takes an early lead via any avenue, their in-play odds of winning that fixture will reduce, however, in general, scores and situations in the notoriously unpredictable Premier League games can change on a whim.
However, our research shows that when the first goal scored in a particular fixture is an own goal, it’s usually curtains for the side that concedes it.
Teams that scored first via any avenue in the Premier League have gone on to win 45.1% of those games this season, but when the first goal is an own goal, the side that benefits have gone on to win 81.8% of the time.
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Source: Football News